At the Towson University Regional Economic Studies Institute’s (RESI) Maryland Workforce Outlook Forum this spring, RESI’s Chief Economist Dr. Daraius Irani (you can find his blog posts here) presented RESI’s occupational forecast for the state of Maryland. This forecast saw job growth in a number of professions, particularly for those related to the healthcare and construction industries. Based on audience interest regarding these occupation projections at the Forum, we decided to develop an occupational forecast at a finer level and examine Baltimore City.
RESI uses the in-house developed PROM tool drawing upon data from the industry-recognized REMI model and data from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics to estimate how economic and demographic changes will impact the labor market. PROM allows us to predict the changes for over 750 occupations and allows policy makers to better plan for future labor demand changes. We can produce two types of reports with this process: an overall economic forecast, like the one presented below, and an occupational gap analysis, like this one that RESI produced last year relating to the nursing shortage.
Maryland’s Top Occupations
For the state forecast, Dr. Irani reported that construction and healthcare industries are expected to have the most growth over the next three years. Since industry changes drive occupation growth, it is no surprise that construction laborers are predicted to have the highest growth, followed by registered nurses. In fact, the only profession in the top 10 that was not at least partly related to the predicted growth in construction and healthcare was cashiers (as can be seen in the chart from the Workforce Outlook Forum).
Employment for Baltimore City by Industry
RESI’s PROM tool predicts that over the next three years, on average, the overall health care industry across all occupations will add about 1,300 jobs a year and that the construction industry will add over 500 jobs per year. RESI expects that Baltimore City will experience positive job growth, but there are a few industries that are likely to see losses, mainly in the manufacturing and information sectors.
Baltimore City’s Top Occupations
As mentioned previously, the overall industry changes greatly influence the occupations that will grow based on how heavily represented an occupation is in an industry. The top 10 specific occupations that Baltimore City will see job growth in can be seen below.
According to RESI’s analysis, registered nurses and nursing assistants are the top two occupations that that are expected to expand in Baltimore City. One of the main differences between the occupation forecast for the city compared to the state is the greater importance of the health care industry in Baltimore City. While for Maryland these two occupations were both in the top 10 (second and ninth, respectively), for this analysis, health care related occupations are the top two areas of predicted growth. Further, the top occupations that are expected to expand correspond to a more diverse industry mix than for the state. RESI’s tool predicts that over the next three years Baltimore City will see job growth in a variety of occupations with an expected increase in the number of janitors, security guards, teachers, and wait staff.